In El Niño years, warmer waters in the eastern Pacific create an active jet stream over the southern U.S., leading to higher chances of cool and wet weather in the southwest and warmer and drier weather in the northwest, during the winter.īut where does Northern California fall? Right in the in-between.Įl Niño events in 98 drenched the West Coast with record rain. NOAA reports that the current state of El Niño is strong, with sea surface temperatures 1.6 degrees Celsius above average.Įl Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation pattern, is a major driver of weather worldwide and is often associated with hotter global temperatures and wetter conditions in portions of California. The chance of a "strong" El Niño has also increased from 66% in August to now 71% in September. In a recent El Niño forecast by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a greater than 95% chance that El Niño continues across the Northern Hemisphere through the winter into 2024. But could Northern California see any impacts? SACRAMENTO - El Niño conditions continue to strengthen and some may see the return of an active winter. A less than robust period of gloomy days means less moisture for plants and vegetation in the mountains and hills to soak up, and that could mean that fire season could get an early start.What does return of El Niño mean for Northern California? 03:12 That's not just a bummer for those of us hoping to enjoy a brief period of sweater weather before things heat up for the summer. "If those abnormally warm waters would continue, that would put a damper on the June gloom," a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in San Diego tells the PE. The marine layer gets stronger or weaker according to "the sharp contrast between the cool ocean and rapidly warming land," so if the ocean is a bit warmer, the contrast isn't that strong, and neither is the gloom. And the normal this time of year is 60 degrees." That small difference is enough to mean big changes in the weather. Right now, "The El Niño-warmed ocean surface is running 62 to 64 degrees. May Gray and June Gloom depend on the presence of cold water in the Pacific, but El Niño famously warms that water up. A Riverside-based US Forest Service meteorologist agrees, telling the PE, "We’re definitely going to see less marine layer coverage in the next couple months." This disruption means that the month-long stretches of gray days that Angelenos have come to expect at this time of year are likely in jeopardy. (First no real rain for SoCal, now the marine layer's disappearing? El Niño, you are the worst.) JPL climate scientist Bill Patzert says that El Niño-which has already failed to create much of a wet winter in SoCal-will be responsible for a lack of gloominess, as the warming it causes over the ocean is affecting the conditions that are conducive to cloudy, cool weeks leading up to the summer. This year's May Gray and June Gloom periods might be weaker and/or shorter, and it's pretty much all El Niño's fault, the Press-Enterprise reports. Those Southern Californians eagerly awaiting May Gray after the record-breaking hot spell earlier this month might not want to get their hopes up.
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